Situasjonen i Ukraina Del 2

[Falcon]

Kuba er fortsatt anti-amerikansk. Venezuela må også nevnes, midt i USA sin bakgård. Også har du Mexico, som har en historie som svært nær alliert med Castro-Kuba.

Ja, og USA/vesten kan vel beskrives som anti-russisk? Derfor er det i mine øyne lik logikk bak ønsket om å ikke få «fienden» inn i egen bakgård. Eller?

"fienden" i dette tilfellet er ukrainerne som får leve i en stat som ikke må blø ressurser til Kreml. Amerikanerne har aldri utplassert missiler i Ukraina.

[Vind]

Noen dager oversteg antallet skjell 80 000 per dag. Europa har en slik produksjonskapasitet til å lage så mange skjell per dag?

Der ga du meg en god latter. Tenk å ofre 80,000 skjell om dagen! Grufullt. Tro om det er blåskjell eller kamskjell det er snakk om. Her må vi få Mowi og Salmar på beina sporenstreks, vi kan ikke la Russerne ha flere skjell en oss!

Jeg forstår ikke sarkasmen din.

prosjektil

[Hetfield]

Forhåpentligvis starten på en intern maktkamp som ender med regimeendring om nå Prigozhin og Wagner går løs på Shoigu.

Det kollapset rundt Hitler også de siste årene i WW2, hvor alle de nærmeste støttespillerne begynte å gå på hverandre foruten noen få lojale.

[Karatel]

Ukraina ønsker bare å leve i fred, innenfor egne grenser. De har ikke hatt noen som helst planer om aggresjon mot Russland.

Det er sikkert riktig, men nå glemmer du den tradisjonelle russiske paranoide mistenksomheten og frykten. I dette tilfelle frykten for å miste det russiske Ukraina til NATO og EU, Ukraina i NATO og EU er som sådan en trussel mot Russland og dermed aggresjon.

Jeg forstår hva du mener og jeg er i hovedsak enig i det du skriver, men er du sikker på at denne frykten er paranoid?
Er ikke situasjonen, objektivt sett ,fullt ut sammenlignbar med det som skjedde på Kuba i 1962? Var USA sin frykt da også paranoid?
Jeg uthever «objektivt sett» fordi vi i vesten selvsagt vil mene at vårt levesett, våre verdier og vårt verdenssyn er det beste og således noe alle andre bør strekke seg mot.
Det samme gjelder vel for andre land/regimer? Man er ofte lojal og tro mot det man har lært/blitt indoktrinert med.

"Paranoid" i folkelig hverdagslig mening, ikke som en medisinsk diagnose. Stalin beskrives ofte som paranoid, selv om det neppe var noen psykiatrisk sakkyndig som hadde hatt anledning til å undersøke ham og sette en slik diagnose på ham.

Hvis vi ser på USA, så kunne kommunistfrykten ofte ta "paranoide" former, det er nok å nevne senator Joseph McCarthy og det kommunisthysteriet han skapte.

Jeg vet ikke om jeg vil sammenligne Cuba for seksti år siden med Ukraina nå i dag. Dengang var den kalde krigen på sitt kaldeste og USA fryktet forståelig nok for å få sovjetiske raketter med atombomber tett utenffor sin stuedør. Vi kan kalle USAs reaksjon hyklersk, siden de sovjetiske rakettene på Cuba var et svar på de amerikanske rakettene i Tyrkia og Italia. Det var også forståelig russerne fryktet disse rakettene og ville svare på dem.

Om Ukraina hadde blitt med i NATO nå og Russland samtidig hadde åpnet seg mot vest og gått inn for samliv og samarbeid med Vesten, tror jeg ikke USA ville utplassert atomvåpen i Ukraina, de ville de ikke hatt noen grunn til. Dette er selvfølgelig noe jeg bare tror, ikke noe jeg vet.

Vi i Vesten er ikke alene om å mene at vårt vestlige levesett og våre vestlige verdier er de beste. Når millioner av mennesker rundt omkring i verden, også i Russland og Ukraina, gjør hva de kan for å komme til Vesten og bo her, er det et klart tegn på at også de mener vestlig levesett og vestlige verdier er de beste.

At man er lojal og tro mot det man er indoktinert med, er sant, men da blir det fort vanskelig, hvis man samtidig mener at vestlig levesett er det beste. Er det mulig å få et vestlig levesett uten samtidig å bekjenne seg til vestlige verdier?

Det ser ut til at autoritære og totalitære stater ikke forstår at for å komme seg opp på vestlig nivå i levesett, må de også ta imot de vestlige verdier som har skapt de vestlige levesettet.

[Foucault]

Kuba er fortsatt anti-amerikansk. Venezuela må også nevnes, midt i USA sin bakgård. Også har du Mexico, som har en historie som svært nær alliert med Castro-Kuba.

Ja, og USA/vesten kan vel beskrives som anti-russisk? Derfor er det i mine øyne lik logikk bak ønsket om å ikke få «fienden» inn i egen bakgård. Eller?

"fienden" i dette tilfellet er ukrainerne som får leve i en stat som ikke må blø ressurser til Kreml. Amerikanerne har aldri utplassert missiler i Ukraina.

Nei, de har ikke utplassert missiler i Ukraina, men de har uttrykt ønske om å la Ukraina innlemmes i NATO på sikt. DA ville trolig missiler bli utplassert i Ukraina.

[Karatel]

Noen dager oversteg antallet skjell 80 000 per dag. Europa har en slik produksjonskapasitet til å lage så mange skjell per dag?

Der ga du meg en god latter. Tenk å ofre 80,000 skjell om dagen! Grufullt. Tro om det er blåskjell eller kamskjell det er snakk om. Her må vi få Mowi og Salmar på beina sporenstreks, vi kan ikke la Russerne ha flere skjell en oss!

Jeg forstår ikke sarkasmen din.

Dette er skjell.

https://sjofartsmuseum.museumvest.no/me ... skjell.png

[Falcon]

Ja, og USA/vesten kan vel beskrives som anti-russisk? Derfor er det i mine øyne lik logikk bak ønsket om å ikke få «fienden» inn i egen bakgård. Eller?

"fienden" i dette tilfellet er ukrainerne som får leve i en stat som ikke må blø ressurser til Kreml. Amerikanerne har aldri utplassert missiler i Ukraina.

Nei, de har ikke utplassert missiler i Ukraina, men de har uttrykt ønske om å la Ukraina innlemmes i NATO på sikt. DA ville trolig missiler bli utplassert i Ukraina.

som en relevant digresjon kan det nevnes at det knapt var NATO-styrker i "øst-Europa" frem til invasjonen av Krim og Donbas i 2014. Om det i det hele tatt har handlet om NATO for Putin, så har han gjort en oppsiktsvekkende dårlig jobb...

[Troygirl]

Her er utdrag fra et lengre intervju med etterretningssjef Kyrylo Budanov i ukrainske Forbes.

Han sier bl.a at russernes storoffensiv er i gang, men det går så dårlig at ikke alle har skjønt at den er i gang. Han snakker også om hvorfor de ikke trekker seg ut av Bakhmut, og om endret taktikk fra russerne pga mangel på ammunisjon.

Jeg har lagt en del bak spoilere, hvis ikke hadde det blitt veldig langt.

Not even everyone notices the "huge offensive" of the Russians. Why Kyrylo Budanov is sure that in the spring there will come a turning point in the war.

Kyrylo Budanov, 37, is one of the most mediated military in Ukraine, and he gave dozens of interviews to Ukrainian and international media. The intelligence officer is categorical in his answers: Russia is almost exhausted, Ukraine will soon win.

Such forecasts sound like a balm for Ukrainians exhausted by the war, but they tend to come true. Budanov was one of the few government officials to warn of a Russian invasion at 5 a.m. on Feb. 24. He predicted the first victories of Ukrainian defenders from the deoccupation of Kharkiv and Kherson.

The words of Budanov, who became the head of the Intelligence Directorate at the age of 34, have weight for the president. Forbes sources at Bankova say that the chief intelligence officer is one of the few in the country who has direct access to Zelensky.

► Show Spoiler

Budanov meets Forbes journalists in his twilight office. On the walls there is a photo. They include the DIU mission, which evacuated people from Afghanistan during the fall of Kabul in 2021, and the defenders of Azovstal during the deaf encirclement by the Russians. Behind Budanov, there is no longer a map with Russia divided into parts. It lies folded on the table. "Now we're cutting it," jokes the head of the GUR.

In an interview with Forbes, he told whether one should be afraid of attacking the Kyiv, where the Intelligence Directorate is getting information from, and how long Ukraine is ready to keep Bakhmut.
Russian offensive and mobilization.

Now there is an offensive by Russia on almost the entire eastern front. Is this the big offensive that has been talked about a lot over the past two months, or do we still have something to expect from Russia in March?

– Russia's great offensive, which they aim for, is already underway. But it is just a continuation, so not everyone even sees it – such is the quality of this offensive. They have a strategic task - to reach the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions by March 31.

Do you think this is the maximum they can announce now? Announcements are usually more ambitious than real opportunities.

– I don't think, I know. This is what they dream of, but they will not be able to do it.

Western media actively wrote that mass mobilization would begin in Russia in late January or early February. They predicted figures of up to 500,000 people. Now it doesn't look like it started.

–And who told you that it wasn't happening? It is hidden.

Is it possible to secretly recruit so many people?

–In a country with a population of more than 100 million, there is no problem of gaining 500,000.

What do we now know about mobilization in Russia? During the first open wave of mobilization, they drafted just over 316,000. Here is the question: if everything is fine in Russia why did they draft 316, 000, and then why continue mobilization? So, everything is not good. This will lead us to a simple conclusion: how many losses are there in the Russian Federation? This figure is sky-high.

Of these 316,000, how many are already directly at the front?

– More than 90% were immediately sent. Nobody taught them – they were sent right to the front.

There is no reserve?

– A small percentage went to the formation of new units, but the majority went to the restoration of units that suffered losses, they are all at the front.

► Show Spoiler

There is an assumption that we need to look very closely at the news of mobilization. If Russia manages to recruit 300,000 or 500,000 people, then the front line will be short for so many people on their part, and then we can expect an attack on the Kyiv. What do you think of it?

– This is dubious logic, I do not share this opinion. The attack in one direction or another is in no way limited by the number of people that you want somewhere or can place.

But it increases Russia's capabilities.

– We have an open war. What's surprising that there's such an opportunity? In addition to the possibility, there is still reality. The reality is that they aim to reach the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions by March 31. You feel the difference: take Kyiv in three days and go to some borders someday.

There is an understanding of how much they can call on, not in terms of the number of people, but how many machine guns, armored vehicles, tanks?

– There are enough assault rifles for any number, there are not enough armored vehicles even now, but this does not interfere with them at all. Now there are many units formed from scratch. They go without equipment, in the "Urals" and "Kamaz". They no longer have infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers in their staff. The equipment is all removed from long-term storage, they have already removed more than 60%, about 35% remain, which can be quickly restored. Production is reduced, and it does not cover needs.

What about Medvedev's statement about 800 tanks a year?

– 800 tanks a year, they are able to do that in their best years, they are unable to do that in wartime, .

About Bakhmut

This is not the first time that materials have been published in foreign media, where they advise us to reduce our presence in Bakhmut in order to preserve forces for a possible counteroffensive in the South. And they say that the importance of the city is more political than strategic.

– I would like to see how such an offer would be made to the President of France. To say that you have a problem, leave the city of Marseille, it is not so strategic.

Is there more political expediency or military expediency in holding Bakhmut?

– Can you imagine the president of the United States being told: "Let's temporarily surrender New York, this should be done"?

If we remember World War II, Stalin was told that it was necessary to retreat from Kyiv. He also said: "How can you retreat from the mother of Russian gardens." We know what it led to.

– If you go further according to your logic, it led to the victory of the Soviet Union.

But 400,000 people were killed and captured in that operation.

– For me, as a patriot and a military man, surrendering even a millimeter of territory is a disaster. This is my personal logic, you can agree with it, you can not. From a military point of view, keeping Bakhmut gives us restraining the Russians in that area and inflicting catastrophic losses on them.

So do we exhaust them?

– We are exhausting them and defending our territory, which in no case can be assessed in context: it is advisable or impractical to leave.

It's about redistributing forces, not just surrendering the city. Perhaps it is more effective to use people in other areas?

– I disagree with this logic.

On the remnants of weapons of the Russian Federation

You mentioned earlier that Russia significantly depletes stocks of equipment, shells, in particular 152 calibers. That they have shells left at the limit of 30% of the total. How can they go on the offensive with so many shells and with such equipment?

– Exactly. This is why not everyone notices this "huge offensive". As for the stocks of weapons, they are now establishing mass production of artillery shells. This once again confirms that there are no reserves of shells, they are not enough.

For two months now, Russian groups operating in our country have been living in a mode of maximum ammunition savings. More or less, ammunition is now used exclusively in Bakhmut and in the Lyman direction. They tried several times to storm Vuhledar, and will continue to try, so this location was added. In all other places, they are in ammunition saving mode.

How many of them are made in Russia now?

– They make much less than they use.

When and will they be able to deploy this production, sufficient for artillery warfare?

– It will never succeed. Russia is not the Soviet Union. They have already felt it and understood it, it is a fact.

But the projectile is not a drone, it does not need to import electronics.

– It is not so easy, it requires a lot of industries that have been destroyed in 30 years. For 30 years, Russia, like many other countries of the post-Soviet space, has been selling stocks.

Do they have the opportunity to find these shells in North Korea?

– Theoretically, there is a possibility, do they get it from there? There are no confirmed cases on North Korea. A trial batch was imported from Iran, now they are trying to bring another batch, no longer a trial one, which is about 20,000 shells. This is nothing compared to the numbers that are used.

We and our partners also have a shortage of these shells.

– Of course, it is impossible to compare the defense-industrial complex of the Soviet Union, ours and most Western countries with the capacities that were during the Cold War.

What does this mean? Will war move from artillery to other tactics?

– Everyone sees the transition to another tactic in Bakhmut. Vuhledar was a prime example of this. In Bakhmut, in general, wave after wave, infantry simply goes. Their artillery only supports, armored vehicles in general units. In Vuhledar, armored vehicles were used, but it was destroyed in the first hours, and everything also turned into rifle battles.

Earlier, you said that Russia had three or four volleys of missiles left, and then you would have to shoot from the assembly line. Has this moment come?

– Small percentages of the total has remained. They produce less than they use in one volley, production does not have time. Russia is not the Soviet Union.

You talked about their conditional maximum – to produce 50 rockets per month.
– Less. In total, they sometimes produce 20, sometimes 22 Caliber missiles per month. These are the ones that are fired from the sea. About 15, sometimes up to 20, Kh-101-type missiles. That is why the number of missiles in each salvo decreases. The intensity of the shelling is falling. At first, there were massive rocket attacks on Mondays, then – once every eight days, now – once every ten days, two weeks. They reduce the number of missiles and increase interval between each attack.

What prevents the Russians from increasing missile production?

– They don't have the capacity, it's a soap bubble. If you haven't done something for 30 years, then you can't during wartime and sanctions do suddenly just as you want.

Imports of electronics from China increased by 500%, six times over the past year. There are components that are necessary for the manufacture of missiles. We are doing something on our part and can we do something to prevent these components from entering Russia?

– These are exclusively civilian goods and chips that can have dual applications. That's a problem. If you import a vacuum cleaner, it is a vacuum cleaner. Based on the realities in which Russia lives, they have to buy millions of such equipment and disassemble it into microcircuits. This is a great shame even for Russian ideology, because they have reached the point of buying washing machines, vacuum cleaners and disassembling them into microcircuits, which they will then insert into rockets.

https://forbes.ua/war-in-ukraine/rosiya ... 2023-11881

[Troygirl]

Der ga du meg en god latter. Tenk å ofre 80,000 skjell om dagen! Grufullt. Tro om det er blåskjell eller kamskjell det er snakk om. Her må vi få Mowi og Salmar på beina sporenstreks, vi kan ikke la Russerne ha flere skjell en oss!

Jeg forstår ikke sarkasmen din.

Dette er skjell.

https://sjofartsmuseum.museumvest.no/me ... skjell.png

Hvis man ikke forstår norsk, så burde man kanskje ikke være her inne. Blir ingen meningsfull dialog når man bruker Google translate/Yandex. Det blir veldig lett å se at det kun er trollvirksomhet man er her for. Blir som han "finnen" på Twitter i går som mente at NATO ikke kunne "laste ned" Finland.

[Karatel]

Jeg forstår ikke sarkasmen din.

Dette er skjell.

https://sjofartsmuseum.museumvest.no/me ... skjell.png

Hvis man ikke forstår norsk, så burde man kanskje ikke være her inne. Blir ingen meningsfull dialog når man bruker Google translate/Yandex. Det blir veldig lett å se at det kun er trollvirksomhet man er her for. Blir som han "finnen" på Twitter i går som mente at NATO ikke kunne "laste ned" Finland.

Jeg synes Vind gjør det bra i norsk og dette var jo en helt uskyldig misforståelse, det gikk kanskje over engelsk shells.

[Foucault]

Det er sikkert riktig, men nå glemmer du den tradisjonelle russiske paranoide mistenksomheten og frykten. I dette tilfelle frykten for å miste det russiske Ukraina til NATO og EU, Ukraina i NATO og EU er som sådan en trussel mot Russland og dermed aggresjon.

Jeg forstår hva du mener og jeg er i hovedsak enig i det du skriver, men er du sikker på at denne frykten er paranoid?
Er ikke situasjonen, objektivt sett ,fullt ut sammenlignbar med det som skjedde på Kuba i 1962? Var USA sin frykt da også paranoid?
Jeg uthever «objektivt sett» fordi vi i vesten selvsagt vil mene at vårt levesett, våre verdier og vårt verdenssyn er det beste og således noe alle andre bør strekke seg mot.
Det samme gjelder vel for andre land/regimer? Man er ofte lojal og tro mot det man har lært/blitt indoktrinert med.

"Paranoid" i folkelig hverdagslig mening, ikke som en medisinsk diagnose. Stalin beskrives ofte som paranoid, selv om det neppe var noen psykiatrisk sakkyndig som hadde hatt anledning til å undersøke ham og sette en slik diagnose på ham.

Hvis vi ser på USA, så kunne kommunistfrykten ofte ta "paranoide" former, det er nok å nevne senator Joseph McCarthy og det kommunisthysteriet han skapte.

Jeg vet ikke om jeg vil sammenligne Cuba for seksti år siden med Ukraina nå i dag. Dengang var den kalde krigen på sitt kaldeste og USA fryktet forståelig nok for å få sovjetiske raketter med atombomber tett utenffor sin stuedør. Vi kan kalle USAs reaksjon hyklersk, siden de sovjetiske rakettene på Cuba var et svar på de amerikanske rakettene i Tyrkia og Italia. Det var også forståelig russerne fryktet disse rakettene og ville svare på dem.

Om Ukraina hadde blitt med i NATO nå og Russland samtidig hadde åpnet seg mot vest og gått inn for samliv og samarbeid med Vesten, tror jeg ikke USA ville utplassert atomvåpen i Ukraina, de ville de ikke hatt noen grunn til. Dette er selvfølgelig noe jeg bare tror, ikke noe jeg vet.

Vi i Vesten er ikke alene om å mene at vårt vestlige levesett og våre vestlige verdier er de beste. Når millioner av mennesker rundt omkring i verden, også i Russland og Ukraina, gjør hva de kan for å komme til Vesten og bo her, er det et klart tegn på at også de mener vestlig levesett og vestlige verdier er de beste.

At man er lojal og tro mot det man er indoktinert med, er sant, men da blir det fort vanskelig, hvis man samtidig mener at vestlig levesett er det beste. Er det mulig å få et vestlig levesett uten samtidig å bekjenne seg til vestlige verdier?

Det ser ut til at autoritære og totalitære stater ikke forstår at for å komme seg opp på vestlig nivå i levesett, må de også ta imot de vestlige verdier som har skapt de vestlige levesettet.

Jeg mente ikke paranoid som en medisinsk diagnose, mer som en ubegrunnet frykt.

Jeg mener Russlands frykt ikke er totalt ubegrunnet og jeg tror at Europa ville vært langt mer stabilt sikkerhetspolitisk dersom NATO tidlig hadde slått fast at Ukraina aldri ville bli aktuell som medlem, nettopp av hensyn til deres nærhet til Russland.

Du spør om det er mulig å få et vestlig levesett uten å samtidig ta til seg vestlige verdier.
Jeg tror ikke det er mulig, men jeg tror man som land kan utvikle seg i positiv retning uten at dette nødvendigvis forutsetter at man tar en ren vestlig kursendring.
Jeg er ikke overbevist om at «det vestlige» er det eneste rette for alle land i verden.
(Det er slik jeg ser det også en utopisk tanke, all den tid vestens/USAs hykleri også er tydelig for andre land).

[Deila]

Takker for artikkelen over @Troygirl. Nå skjønner jeg også hvorfor russerne har vært så ivrige på å stjele vaskemaskiner

[Varulv2468]

Ser ut som Wagner får samme mengde ammunisjon som resten av den russiske hæren.

"Hva sa jeg" - ammunisjonsmangelen er så prekært, at de russiske offiserene for å opprettholde stridskapasiteten må deretter redusere den daglige forbruken av granater og raketter til et minimum eller mer normalt nivå for å ikke gå tomme. De må sette til side en del for å bygge opp reserver for nødssituasjoner og planlagte offensiver som operasjoner i den nære fremtiden. De må også fordele det de har, til stridsenhetene delt opp i fire til fem fronter og ha nok for sitt grenseforsvaret i nordvest samt for Belarus og grenseforsvaret mot NATO i vest og Aserbajdsjan/Georgia i sør. Da er det ikke rart at de russiske artilleristene må avfinne seg med mindre ammunisjon enn før, men i det minst kan de føre en "normal" krig med større vekt på taktisk benyttelse av sine våpnene enn massebombardement.

Trolig er det nå "bare få" tusen granater på 122mm til 203mm kalibre per dag på begge sider, ukrainerne har et synlig overtak mot russerne som på sin side simpelt gravd seg ned eller framover. Antar at så mye som 5,000 til 8,000 "sløses bort" per dag. Det skulle være 20,000 ifølge Wagner, de får bare mindre enn en femtedel av dette for et frontavsnitt på rundt 50 km - det meste aktive i krigen for tiden. Ukrainerne må også spare, de kan ikke lenge sløst bort så mye som de hadde gjort i november-februar. På den måten kan man fremdeles slåss uten stans, og påføre hverandre skade - men på mindre skala enn tidlig, mer i tråd med det som er normal praksis.

Selv om mye ammunisjon hentes fra Nord-Korea og Iran, er det forbrukt altfor mye, og nyproduksjon for begrenset til man kan returnere til vanviddet i det forrige året som er verdenshistoriens verste artilleri-år; Så mye som ti til tolv millioner granater og raketter fra 40mm til 300mm med en samlet vekt på trolig ett til et par million tonn på det meste har blitt sløst bort. Ingen av krigsårene under de to verdenskrigene overgikk året 2022. Vanvidd!

Da er det ikke rart at artilleriet i dag er nå blitt mer viktigere enn før, for nå er det prekært for begge parter som dermed må slåss med mindre tung artilleristøtte enn før.

[TomBrady12]

Dette er skjell.

https://sjofartsmuseum.museumvest.no/me ... skjell.png

Hvis man ikke forstår norsk, så burde man kanskje ikke være her inne. Blir ingen meningsfull dialog når man bruker Google translate/Yandex. Det blir veldig lett å se at det kun er trollvirksomhet man er her for. Blir som han "finnen" på Twitter i går som mente at NATO ikke kunne "laste ned" Finland.

Jeg synes Vind gjør det bra i norsk og dette var jo en helt uskyldig misforståelse, det gikk kanskje over engelsk shells.

Sannsynligheten for at innleggene til brukeren kommer rett fra en trollfabrikk er høy. Mulig du ikke fikk lest alt som ble slettet av mod tidl. i dag?

[Vind]

Her er utdrag fra et lengre intervju med etterretningssjef Kyrylo Budanov i ukrainske Forbes.

Han sier bl.a at russernes storoffensiv er i gang, men det går så dårlig at ikke alle har skjønt at den er i gang. Han snakker også om hvorfor de ikke trekker seg ut av Bakhmut, og om endret taktikk fra russerne pga mangel på ammunisjon.

Jeg har lagt en del bak spoilere, hvis ikke hadde det blitt veldig langt.

Not even everyone notices the "huge offensive" of the Russians. Why Kyrylo Budanov is sure that in the spring there will come a turning point in the war.

Kyrylo Budanov, 37, is one of the most mediated military in Ukraine, and he gave dozens of interviews to Ukrainian and international media. The intelligence officer is categorical in his answers: Russia is almost exhausted, Ukraine will soon win.

Such forecasts sound like a balm for Ukrainians exhausted by the war, but they tend to come true. Budanov was one of the few government officials to warn of a Russian invasion at 5 a.m. on Feb. 24. He predicted the first victories of Ukrainian defenders from the deoccupation of Kharkiv and Kherson.

The words of Budanov, who became the head of the Intelligence Directorate at the age of 34, have weight for the president. Forbes sources at Bankova say that the chief intelligence officer is one of the few in the country who has direct access to Zelensky.

► Show Spoiler

Budanov meets Forbes journalists in his twilight office. On the walls there is a photo. They include the DIU mission, which evacuated people from Afghanistan during the fall of Kabul in 2021, and the defenders of Azovstal during the deaf encirclement by the Russians. Behind Budanov, there is no longer a map with Russia divided into parts. It lies folded on the table. "Now we're cutting it," jokes the head of the GUR.

In an interview with Forbes, he told whether one should be afraid of attacking the Kyiv, where the Intelligence Directorate is getting information from, and how long Ukraine is ready to keep Bakhmut.
Russian offensive and mobilization.

Now there is an offensive by Russia on almost the entire eastern front. Is this the big offensive that has been talked about a lot over the past two months, or do we still have something to expect from Russia in March?

– Russia's great offensive, which they aim for, is already underway. But it is just a continuation, so not everyone even sees it – such is the quality of this offensive. They have a strategic task - to reach the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions by March 31.

Do you think this is the maximum they can announce now? Announcements are usually more ambitious than real opportunities.

– I don't think, I know. This is what they dream of, but they will not be able to do it.

Western media actively wrote that mass mobilization would begin in Russia in late January or early February. They predicted figures of up to 500,000 people. Now it doesn't look like it started.

–And who told you that it wasn't happening? It is hidden.

Is it possible to secretly recruit so many people?

–In a country with a population of more than 100 million, there is no problem of gaining 500,000.

What do we now know about mobilization in Russia? During the first open wave of mobilization, they drafted just over 316,000. Here is the question: if everything is fine in Russia why did they draft 316, 000, and then why continue mobilization? So, everything is not good. This will lead us to a simple conclusion: how many losses are there in the Russian Federation? This figure is sky-high.

Of these 316,000, how many are already directly at the front?

– More than 90% were immediately sent. Nobody taught them – they were sent right to the front.

There is no reserve?

– A small percentage went to the formation of new units, but the majority went to the restoration of units that suffered losses, they are all at the front.

► Show Spoiler

There is an assumption that we need to look very closely at the news of mobilization. If Russia manages to recruit 300,000 or 500,000 people, then the front line will be short for so many people on their part, and then we can expect an attack on the Kyiv. What do you think of it?

– This is dubious logic, I do not share this opinion. The attack in one direction or another is in no way limited by the number of people that you want somewhere or can place.

But it increases Russia's capabilities.

– We have an open war. What's surprising that there's such an opportunity? In addition to the possibility, there is still reality. The reality is that they aim to reach the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions by March 31. You feel the difference: take Kyiv in three days and go to some borders someday.

There is an understanding of how much they can call on, not in terms of the number of people, but how many machine guns, armored vehicles, tanks?

– There are enough assault rifles for any number, there are not enough armored vehicles even now, but this does not interfere with them at all. Now there are many units formed from scratch. They go without equipment, in the "Urals" and "Kamaz". They no longer have infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers in their staff. The equipment is all removed from long-term storage, they have already removed more than 60%, about 35% remain, which can be quickly restored. Production is reduced, and it does not cover needs.

What about Medvedev's statement about 800 tanks a year?

– 800 tanks a year, they are able to do that in their best years, they are unable to do that in wartime, .

About Bakhmut

This is not the first time that materials have been published in foreign media, where they advise us to reduce our presence in Bakhmut in order to preserve forces for a possible counteroffensive in the South. And they say that the importance of the city is more political than strategic.

– I would like to see how such an offer would be made to the President of France. To say that you have a problem, leave the city of Marseille, it is not so strategic.

Is there more political expediency or military expediency in holding Bakhmut?

– Can you imagine the president of the United States being told: "Let's temporarily surrender New York, this should be done"?

If we remember World War II, Stalin was told that it was necessary to retreat from Kyiv. He also said: "How can you retreat from the mother of Russian gardens." We know what it led to.

– If you go further according to your logic, it led to the victory of the Soviet Union.

But 400,000 people were killed and captured in that operation.

– For me, as a patriot and a military man, surrendering even a millimeter of territory is a disaster. This is my personal logic, you can agree with it, you can not. From a military point of view, keeping Bakhmut gives us restraining the Russians in that area and inflicting catastrophic losses on them.

So do we exhaust them?

– We are exhausting them and defending our territory, which in no case can be assessed in context: it is advisable or impractical to leave.

It's about redistributing forces, not just surrendering the city. Perhaps it is more effective to use people in other areas?

– I disagree with this logic.

On the remnants of weapons of the Russian Federation

You mentioned earlier that Russia significantly depletes stocks of equipment, shells, in particular 152 calibers. That they have shells left at the limit of 30% of the total. How can they go on the offensive with so many shells and with such equipment?

– Exactly. This is why not everyone notices this "huge offensive". As for the stocks of weapons, they are now establishing mass production of artillery shells. This once again confirms that there are no reserves of shells, they are not enough.

For two months now, Russian groups operating in our country have been living in a mode of maximum ammunition savings. More or less, ammunition is now used exclusively in Bakhmut and in the Lyman direction. They tried several times to storm Vuhledar, and will continue to try, so this location was added. In all other places, they are in ammunition saving mode.

How many of them are made in Russia now?

– They make much less than they use.

When and will they be able to deploy this production, sufficient for artillery warfare?

– It will never succeed. Russia is not the Soviet Union. They have already felt it and understood it, it is a fact.

But the projectile is not a drone, it does not need to import electronics.

– It is not so easy, it requires a lot of industries that have been destroyed in 30 years. For 30 years, Russia, like many other countries of the post-Soviet space, has been selling stocks.

Do they have the opportunity to find these shells in North Korea?

– Theoretically, there is a possibility, do they get it from there? There are no confirmed cases on North Korea. A trial batch was imported from Iran, now they are trying to bring another batch, no longer a trial one, which is about 20,000 shells. This is nothing compared to the numbers that are used.

We and our partners also have a shortage of these shells.

– Of course, it is impossible to compare the defense-industrial complex of the Soviet Union, ours and most Western countries with the capacities that were during the Cold War.

What does this mean? Will war move from artillery to other tactics?

– Everyone sees the transition to another tactic in Bakhmut. Vuhledar was a prime example of this. In Bakhmut, in general, wave after wave, infantry simply goes. Their artillery only supports, armored vehicles in general units. In Vuhledar, armored vehicles were used, but it was destroyed in the first hours, and everything also turned into rifle battles.

Earlier, you said that Russia had three or four volleys of missiles left, and then you would have to shoot from the assembly line. Has this moment come?

– Small percentages of the total has remained. They produce less than they use in one volley, production does not have time. Russia is not the Soviet Union.

You talked about their conditional maximum – to produce 50 rockets per month.
– Less. In total, they sometimes produce 20, sometimes 22 Caliber missiles per month. These are the ones that are fired from the sea. About 15, sometimes up to 20, Kh-101-type missiles. That is why the number of missiles in each salvo decreases. The intensity of the shelling is falling. At first, there were massive rocket attacks on Mondays, then – once every eight days, now – once every ten days, two weeks. They reduce the number of missiles and increase interval between each attack.

What prevents the Russians from increasing missile production?

– They don't have the capacity, it's a soap bubble. If you haven't done something for 30 years, then you can't during wartime and sanctions do suddenly just as you want.

Imports of electronics from China increased by 500%, six times over the past year. There are components that are necessary for the manufacture of missiles. We are doing something on our part and can we do something to prevent these components from entering Russia?

– These are exclusively civilian goods and chips that can have dual applications. That's a problem. If you import a vacuum cleaner, it is a vacuum cleaner. Based on the realities in which Russia lives, they have to buy millions of such equipment and disassemble it into microcircuits. This is a great shame even for Russian ideology, because they have reached the point of buying washing machines, vacuum cleaners and disassembling them into microcircuits, which they will then insert into rockets.

https://forbes.ua/war-in-ukraine/rosiya ... 2023-11881

Jeg er lei av å høre slike påstander om mikrobrikker. Forstår du hvor mange mikrobrikker som kan plasseres i en beholder.. Hvor mange av dem får plass i en beholder, en million eller 10 millioner stykker Hvor mye koster denne brikken? 25 øre? Tror du at russerne ikke har disse sjetongene på lager? Jeg tror de har enormt mange av dem og historiene om at de blir tatt ut av vaskemaskiner er bare tull. Ikke bli fornærmet, kanskje jeg svarte frekt, men jeg forstår det ikke. Hvordan kan du tro på noe slikt. Og det er faktisk ingen grense mellom Kina og Russland, det skjønner du.
Eller tror du Russland ikke har penger til å kjøpe flere av disse beholderne med chip?

[Hmm]

Ser ut som Wagner får samme mengde ammunisjon som resten av den russiske hæren.

"Hva sa jeg" - ammunisjonsmangelen er så prekært, at de russiske offiserene for å opprettholde stridskapasiteten må deretter redusere den daglige forbruken av granater og raketter til et minimum eller mer normalt nivå for å ikke gå tomme. De må sette til side en del for å bygge opp reserver for nødssituasjoner og planlagte offensiver som operasjoner i den nære fremtiden. De må også fordele det de har, til stridsenhetene delt opp i fire til fem fronter og ha nok for sitt grenseforsvaret i nordvest samt for Belarus og grenseforsvaret mot NATO i vest og Aserbajdsjan/Georgia i sør. Da er det ikke rart at de russiske artilleristene må avfinne seg med mindre ammunisjon enn før, men i det minst kan de føre en "normal" krig med større vekt på taktisk benyttelse av sine våpnene enn massebombardement.

Trolig er det nå "bare få" tusen granater på 122mm til 203mm kalibre per dag på begge sider, ukrainerne har et synlig overtak mot russerne som på sin side simpelt gravd seg ned eller framover. Antar at så mye som 5,000 til 8,000 "sløses bort" per dag. Det skulle være 20,000 ifølge Wagner, de får bare mindre enn en femtedel av dette for et frontavsnitt på rundt 50 km - det meste aktive i krigen for tiden. Ukrainerne må også spare, de kan ikke lenge sløst bort så mye som de hadde gjort i november-februar. På den måten kan man fremdeles slåss uten stans, og påføre hverandre skade - men på mindre skala enn tidlig, mer i tråd med det som er normal praksis.

Selv om mye ammunisjon hentes fra Nord-Korea og Iran, er det forbrukt altfor mye, og nyproduksjon for begrenset til man kan returnere til vanviddet i det forrige året som er verdenshistoriens verste artilleri-år; Så mye som ti til tolv millioner granater og raketter fra 40mm til 300mm med en samlet vekt på trolig ett til et par million tonn på det meste har blitt sløst bort. Ingen av krigsårene under de to verdenskrigene overgikk året 2022. Vanvidd!

Da er det ikke rart at artilleriet i dag er nå blitt mer viktigere enn før, for nå er det prekært for begge parter som dermed må slåss med mindre tung artilleristøtte enn før.

At artilleri har vært en av de viktigste komponentene i denne krigen tror jeg ikke mange hadde satt pengene sine på for et år siden. Men slik den utviklet seg, der begge parter må grave seg ned så er det ikke så merkelig. Det er jo akkurat i slike kriger artilleri er ekstra viktig.

Den store overraskelsen er vel da at det ble en slik type krig.

I mangel på artilleri og ammo brukes tanks, men det er ikke like effektivt. Og man må mye nærmere frontlinjene.

[MacanT]

► Show Spoiler

Her er utdrag fra et lengre intervju med etterretningssjef Kyrylo Budanov i ukrainske Forbes.

Han sier bl.a at russernes storoffensiv er i gang, men det går så dårlig at ikke alle har skjønt at den er i gang. Han snakker også om hvorfor de ikke trekker seg ut av Bakhmut, og om endret taktikk fra russerne pga mangel på ammunisjon.

Jeg har lagt en del bak spoilere, hvis ikke hadde det blitt veldig langt.

Not even everyone notices the "huge offensive" of the Russians. Why Kyrylo Budanov is sure that in the spring there will come a turning point in the war.

Kyrylo Budanov, 37, is one of the most mediated military in Ukraine, and he gave dozens of interviews to Ukrainian and international media. The intelligence officer is categorical in his answers: Russia is almost exhausted, Ukraine will soon win.

Such forecasts sound like a balm for Ukrainians exhausted by the war, but they tend to come true. Budanov was one of the few government officials to warn of a Russian invasion at 5 a.m. on Feb. 24. He predicted the first victories of Ukrainian defenders from the deoccupation of Kharkiv and Kherson.

The words of Budanov, who became the head of the Intelligence Directorate at the age of 34, have weight for the president. Forbes sources at Bankova say that the chief intelligence officer is one of the few in the country who has direct access to Zelensky.

► Show Spoiler

Budanov meets Forbes journalists in his twilight office. On the walls there is a photo. They include the DIU mission, which evacuated people from Afghanistan during the fall of Kabul in 2021, and the defenders of Azovstal during the deaf encirclement by the Russians. Behind Budanov, there is no longer a map with Russia divided into parts. It lies folded on the table. "Now we're cutting it," jokes the head of the GUR.

In an interview with Forbes, he told whether one should be afraid of attacking the Kyiv, where the Intelligence Directorate is getting information from, and how long Ukraine is ready to keep Bakhmut.
Russian offensive and mobilization.

Now there is an offensive by Russia on almost the entire eastern front. Is this the big offensive that has been talked about a lot over the past two months, or do we still have something to expect from Russia in March?

– Russia's great offensive, which they aim for, is already underway. But it is just a continuation, so not everyone even sees it – such is the quality of this offensive. They have a strategic task - to reach the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions by March 31.

Do you think this is the maximum they can announce now? Announcements are usually more ambitious than real opportunities.

– I don't think, I know. This is what they dream of, but they will not be able to do it.

Western media actively wrote that mass mobilization would begin in Russia in late January or early February. They predicted figures of up to 500,000 people. Now it doesn't look like it started.

–And who told you that it wasn't happening? It is hidden.

Is it possible to secretly recruit so many people?

–In a country with a population of more than 100 million, there is no problem of gaining 500,000.

What do we now know about mobilization in Russia? During the first open wave of mobilization, they drafted just over 316,000. Here is the question: if everything is fine in Russia why did they draft 316, 000, and then why continue mobilization? So, everything is not good. This will lead us to a simple conclusion: how many losses are there in the Russian Federation? This figure is sky-high.

Of these 316,000, how many are already directly at the front?

– More than 90% were immediately sent. Nobody taught them – they were sent right to the front.

There is no reserve?

– A small percentage went to the formation of new units, but the majority went to the restoration of units that suffered losses, they are all at the front.

► Show Spoiler

There is an assumption that we need to look very closely at the news of mobilization. If Russia manages to recruit 300,000 or 500,000 people, then the front line will be short for so many people on their part, and then we can expect an attack on the Kyiv. What do you think of it?

– This is dubious logic, I do not share this opinion. The attack in one direction or another is in no way limited by the number of people that you want somewhere or can place.

But it increases Russia's capabilities.

– We have an open war. What's surprising that there's such an opportunity? In addition to the possibility, there is still reality. The reality is that they aim to reach the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions by March 31. You feel the difference: take Kyiv in three days and go to some borders someday.

There is an understanding of how much they can call on, not in terms of the number of people, but how many machine guns, armored vehicles, tanks?

– There are enough assault rifles for any number, there are not enough armored vehicles even now, but this does not interfere with them at all. Now there are many units formed from scratch. They go without equipment, in the "Urals" and "Kamaz". They no longer have infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers in their staff. The equipment is all removed from long-term storage, they have already removed more than 60%, about 35% remain, which can be quickly restored. Production is reduced, and it does not cover needs.

What about Medvedev's statement about 800 tanks a year?

– 800 tanks a year, they are able to do that in their best years, they are unable to do that in wartime, .

About Bakhmut

This is not the first time that materials have been published in foreign media, where they advise us to reduce our presence in Bakhmut in order to preserve forces for a possible counteroffensive in the South. And they say that the importance of the city is more political than strategic.

– I would like to see how such an offer would be made to the President of France. To say that you have a problem, leave the city of Marseille, it is not so strategic.

Is there more political expediency or military expediency in holding Bakhmut?

– Can you imagine the president of the United States being told: "Let's temporarily surrender New York, this should be done"?

If we remember World War II, Stalin was told that it was necessary to retreat from Kyiv. He also said: "How can you retreat from the mother of Russian gardens." We know what it led to.

– If you go further according to your logic, it led to the victory of the Soviet Union.

But 400,000 people were killed and captured in that operation.

– For me, as a patriot and a military man, surrendering even a millimeter of territory is a disaster. This is my personal logic, you can agree with it, you can not. From a military point of view, keeping Bakhmut gives us restraining the Russians in that area and inflicting catastrophic losses on them.

So do we exhaust them?

– We are exhausting them and defending our territory, which in no case can be assessed in context: it is advisable or impractical to leave.

It's about redistributing forces, not just surrendering the city. Perhaps it is more effective to use people in other areas?

– I disagree with this logic.

On the remnants of weapons of the Russian Federation

You mentioned earlier that Russia significantly depletes stocks of equipment, shells, in particular 152 calibers. That they have shells left at the limit of 30% of the total. How can they go on the offensive with so many shells and with such equipment?

– Exactly. This is why not everyone notices this "huge offensive". As for the stocks of weapons, they are now establishing mass production of artillery shells. This once again confirms that there are no reserves of shells, they are not enough.

For two months now, Russian groups operating in our country have been living in a mode of maximum ammunition savings. More or less, ammunition is now used exclusively in Bakhmut and in the Lyman direction. They tried several times to storm Vuhledar, and will continue to try, so this location was added. In all other places, they are in ammunition saving mode.

How many of them are made in Russia now?

– They make much less than they use.

When and will they be able to deploy this production, sufficient for artillery warfare?

– It will never succeed. Russia is not the Soviet Union. They have already felt it and understood it, it is a fact.

But the projectile is not a drone, it does not need to import electronics.

– It is not so easy, it requires a lot of industries that have been destroyed in 30 years. For 30 years, Russia, like many other countries of the post-Soviet space, has been selling stocks.

Do they have the opportunity to find these shells in North Korea?

– Theoretically, there is a possibility, do they get it from there? There are no confirmed cases on North Korea. A trial batch was imported from Iran, now they are trying to bring another batch, no longer a trial one, which is about 20,000 shells. This is nothing compared to the numbers that are used.

We and our partners also have a shortage of these shells.

– Of course, it is impossible to compare the defense-industrial complex of the Soviet Union, ours and most Western countries with the capacities that were during the Cold War.

What does this mean? Will war move from artillery to other tactics?

– Everyone sees the transition to another tactic in Bakhmut. Vuhledar was a prime example of this. In Bakhmut, in general, wave after wave, infantry simply goes. Their artillery only supports, armored vehicles in general units. In Vuhledar, armored vehicles were used, but it was destroyed in the first hours, and everything also turned into rifle battles.

Earlier, you said that Russia had three or four volleys of missiles left, and then you would have to shoot from the assembly line. Has this moment come?

– Small percentages of the total has remained. They produce less than they use in one volley, production does not have time. Russia is not the Soviet Union.

You talked about their conditional maximum – to produce 50 rockets per month.
– Less. In total, they sometimes produce 20, sometimes 22 Caliber missiles per month. These are the ones that are fired from the sea. About 15, sometimes up to 20, Kh-101-type missiles. That is why the number of missiles in each salvo decreases. The intensity of the shelling is falling. At first, there were massive rocket attacks on Mondays, then – once every eight days, now – once every ten days, two weeks. They reduce the number of missiles and increase interval between each attack.

What prevents the Russians from increasing missile production?

– They don't have the capacity, it's a soap bubble. If you haven't done something for 30 years, then you can't during wartime and sanctions do suddenly just as you want.

Imports of electronics from China increased by 500%, six times over the past year. There are components that are necessary for the manufacture of missiles. We are doing something on our part and can we do something to prevent these components from entering Russia?

– These are exclusively civilian goods and chips that can have dual applications. That's a problem. If you import a vacuum cleaner, it is a vacuum cleaner. Based on the realities in which Russia lives, they have to buy millions of such equipment and disassemble it into microcircuits. This is a great shame even for Russian ideology, because they have reached the point of buying washing machines, vacuum cleaners and disassembling them into microcircuits, which they will then insert into rockets.

https://forbes.ua/war-in-ukraine/rosiya ... 2023-11881

Jeg er lei av å høre slike påstander om mikrobrikker. Forstår du hvor mange mikrobrikker som kan plasseres i en beholder.. Hvor mange av dem får plass i en beholder, en million eller 10 millioner stykker Hvor mye koster denne brikken? 25 øre? Tror du at russerne ikke har disse sjetongene på lager? Jeg tror de har enormt mange av dem og historiene om at de blir tatt ut av vaskemaskiner er bare tull. Ikke bli fornærmet, kanskje jeg svarte frekt, men jeg forstår det ikke. Hvordan kan du tro på noe slikt. Og det er faktisk ingen grense mellom Kina og Russland, det skjønner du.
Eller tror du Russland ikke har penger til å kjøpe flere av disse beholderne med chip?

Nå har visst microchips blitt oversatt til sjetonger også, jeg dauer

Russland har for øvrig en 3650 km lang grense mot Kina, så der bommet du også.

[BBQsaus]

Tenk at det sitter en russer på en trollfabrikk et eller annet sted i Russland jobber på dette forumet

[TomBrady12]

Her er utdrag fra et lengre intervju med etterretningssjef Kyrylo Budanov i ukrainske Forbes.

Han sier bl.a at russernes storoffensiv er i gang, men det går så dårlig at ikke alle har skjønt at den er i gang. Han snakker også om hvorfor de ikke trekker seg ut av Bakhmut, og om endret taktikk fra russerne pga mangel på ammunisjon.

Jeg har lagt en del bak spoilere, hvis ikke hadde det blitt veldig langt.

Not even everyone notices the "huge offensive" of the Russians. Why Kyrylo Budanov is sure that in the spring there will come a turning point in the war.

Kyrylo Budanov, 37, is one of the most mediated military in Ukraine, and he gave dozens of interviews to Ukrainian and international media. The intelligence officer is categorical in his answers: Russia is almost exhausted, Ukraine will soon win.

Such forecasts sound like a balm for Ukrainians exhausted by the war, but they tend to come true. Budanov was one of the few government officials to warn of a Russian invasion at 5 a.m. on Feb. 24. He predicted the first victories of Ukrainian defenders from the deoccupation of Kharkiv and Kherson.

The words of Budanov, who became the head of the Intelligence Directorate at the age of 34, have weight for the president. Forbes sources at Bankova say that the chief intelligence officer is one of the few in the country who has direct access to Zelensky.

► Show Spoiler

Budanov meets Forbes journalists in his twilight office. On the walls there is a photo. They include the DIU mission, which evacuated people from Afghanistan during the fall of Kabul in 2021, and the defenders of Azovstal during the deaf encirclement by the Russians. Behind Budanov, there is no longer a map with Russia divided into parts. It lies folded on the table. "Now we're cutting it," jokes the head of the GUR.

In an interview with Forbes, he told whether one should be afraid of attacking the Kyiv, where the Intelligence Directorate is getting information from, and how long Ukraine is ready to keep Bakhmut.
Russian offensive and mobilization.

Now there is an offensive by Russia on almost the entire eastern front. Is this the big offensive that has been talked about a lot over the past two months, or do we still have something to expect from Russia in March?

– Russia's great offensive, which they aim for, is already underway. But it is just a continuation, so not everyone even sees it – such is the quality of this offensive. They have a strategic task - to reach the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions by March 31.

Do you think this is the maximum they can announce now? Announcements are usually more ambitious than real opportunities.

– I don't think, I know. This is what they dream of, but they will not be able to do it.

Western media actively wrote that mass mobilization would begin in Russia in late January or early February. They predicted figures of up to 500,000 people. Now it doesn't look like it started.

–And who told you that it wasn't happening? It is hidden.

Is it possible to secretly recruit so many people?

–In a country with a population of more than 100 million, there is no problem of gaining 500,000.

What do we now know about mobilization in Russia? During the first open wave of mobilization, they drafted just over 316,000. Here is the question: if everything is fine in Russia why did they draft 316, 000, and then why continue mobilization? So, everything is not good. This will lead us to a simple conclusion: how many losses are there in the Russian Federation? This figure is sky-high.

Of these 316,000, how many are already directly at the front?

– More than 90% were immediately sent. Nobody taught them – they were sent right to the front.

There is no reserve?

– A small percentage went to the formation of new units, but the majority went to the restoration of units that suffered losses, they are all at the front.

► Show Spoiler

There is an assumption that we need to look very closely at the news of mobilization. If Russia manages to recruit 300,000 or 500,000 people, then the front line will be short for so many people on their part, and then we can expect an attack on the Kyiv. What do you think of it?

– This is dubious logic, I do not share this opinion. The attack in one direction or another is in no way limited by the number of people that you want somewhere or can place.

But it increases Russia's capabilities.

– We have an open war. What's surprising that there's such an opportunity? In addition to the possibility, there is still reality. The reality is that they aim to reach the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions by March 31. You feel the difference: take Kyiv in three days and go to some borders someday.

There is an understanding of how much they can call on, not in terms of the number of people, but how many machine guns, armored vehicles, tanks?

– There are enough assault rifles for any number, there are not enough armored vehicles even now, but this does not interfere with them at all. Now there are many units formed from scratch. They go without equipment, in the "Urals" and "Kamaz". They no longer have infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers in their staff. The equipment is all removed from long-term storage, they have already removed more than 60%, about 35% remain, which can be quickly restored. Production is reduced, and it does not cover needs.

What about Medvedev's statement about 800 tanks a year?

– 800 tanks a year, they are able to do that in their best years, they are unable to do that in wartime, .

About Bakhmut

This is not the first time that materials have been published in foreign media, where they advise us to reduce our presence in Bakhmut in order to preserve forces for a possible counteroffensive in the South. And they say that the importance of the city is more political than strategic.

– I would like to see how such an offer would be made to the President of France. To say that you have a problem, leave the city of Marseille, it is not so strategic.

Is there more political expediency or military expediency in holding Bakhmut?

– Can you imagine the president of the United States being told: "Let's temporarily surrender New York, this should be done"?

If we remember World War II, Stalin was told that it was necessary to retreat from Kyiv. He also said: "How can you retreat from the mother of Russian gardens." We know what it led to.

– If you go further according to your logic, it led to the victory of the Soviet Union.

But 400,000 people were killed and captured in that operation.

– For me, as a patriot and a military man, surrendering even a millimeter of territory is a disaster. This is my personal logic, you can agree with it, you can not. From a military point of view, keeping Bakhmut gives us restraining the Russians in that area and inflicting catastrophic losses on them.

So do we exhaust them?

– We are exhausting them and defending our territory, which in no case can be assessed in context: it is advisable or impractical to leave.

It's about redistributing forces, not just surrendering the city. Perhaps it is more effective to use people in other areas?

– I disagree with this logic.

On the remnants of weapons of the Russian Federation

You mentioned earlier that Russia significantly depletes stocks of equipment, shells, in particular 152 calibers. That they have shells left at the limit of 30% of the total. How can they go on the offensive with so many shells and with such equipment?

– Exactly. This is why not everyone notices this "huge offensive". As for the stocks of weapons, they are now establishing mass production of artillery shells. This once again confirms that there are no reserves of shells, they are not enough.

For two months now, Russian groups operating in our country have been living in a mode of maximum ammunition savings. More or less, ammunition is now used exclusively in Bakhmut and in the Lyman direction. They tried several times to storm Vuhledar, and will continue to try, so this location was added. In all other places, they are in ammunition saving mode.

How many of them are made in Russia now?

– They make much less than they use.

When and will they be able to deploy this production, sufficient for artillery warfare?

– It will never succeed. Russia is not the Soviet Union. They have already felt it and understood it, it is a fact.

But the projectile is not a drone, it does not need to import electronics.

– It is not so easy, it requires a lot of industries that have been destroyed in 30 years. For 30 years, Russia, like many other countries of the post-Soviet space, has been selling stocks.

Do they have the opportunity to find these shells in North Korea?

– Theoretically, there is a possibility, do they get it from there? There are no confirmed cases on North Korea. A trial batch was imported from Iran, now they are trying to bring another batch, no longer a trial one, which is about 20,000 shells. This is nothing compared to the numbers that are used.

We and our partners also have a shortage of these shells.

– Of course, it is impossible to compare the defense-industrial complex of the Soviet Union, ours and most Western countries with the capacities that were during the Cold War.

What does this mean? Will war move from artillery to other tactics?

– Everyone sees the transition to another tactic in Bakhmut. Vuhledar was a prime example of this. In Bakhmut, in general, wave after wave, infantry simply goes. Their artillery only supports, armored vehicles in general units. In Vuhledar, armored vehicles were used, but it was destroyed in the first hours, and everything also turned into rifle battles.

Earlier, you said that Russia had three or four volleys of missiles left, and then you would have to shoot from the assembly line. Has this moment come?

– Small percentages of the total has remained. They produce less than they use in one volley, production does not have time. Russia is not the Soviet Union.

You talked about their conditional maximum – to produce 50 rockets per month.
– Less. In total, they sometimes produce 20, sometimes 22 Caliber missiles per month. These are the ones that are fired from the sea. About 15, sometimes up to 20, Kh-101-type missiles. That is why the number of missiles in each salvo decreases. The intensity of the shelling is falling. At first, there were massive rocket attacks on Mondays, then – once every eight days, now – once every ten days, two weeks. They reduce the number of missiles and increase interval between each attack.

What prevents the Russians from increasing missile production?

– They don't have the capacity, it's a soap bubble. If you haven't done something for 30 years, then you can't during wartime and sanctions do suddenly just as you want.

Imports of electronics from China increased by 500%, six times over the past year. There are components that are necessary for the manufacture of missiles. We are doing something on our part and can we do something to prevent these components from entering Russia?

– These are exclusively civilian goods and chips that can have dual applications. That's a problem. If you import a vacuum cleaner, it is a vacuum cleaner. Based on the realities in which Russia lives, they have to buy millions of such equipment and disassemble it into microcircuits. This is a great shame even for Russian ideology, because they have reached the point of buying washing machines, vacuum cleaners and disassembling them into microcircuits, which they will then insert into rockets.

https://forbes.ua/war-in-ukraine/rosiya ... 2023-11881

Jeg er lei av å høre slike påstander om mikrobrikker. Forstår du hvor mange mikrobrikker som kan plasseres i en beholder.. Hvor mange av dem får plass i en beholder, en million eller 10 millioner stykker Hvor mye koster denne brikken? 25 øre? Tror du at russerne ikke har disse sjetongene på lager? Jeg tror de har enormt mange av dem og historiene om at de blir tatt ut av vaskemaskiner er bare tull. Ikke bli fornærmet, kanskje jeg svarte frekt, men jeg forstår det ikke. Hvordan kan du tro på noe slikt. Og det er faktisk ingen grense mellom Kina og Russland, det skjønner du.
Eller tror du Russland ikke har penger til å kjøpe flere av disse beholderne med chip?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2 ... p_shortage

[TomBrady12]

Tenk at det sitter en russer på en trollfabrikk et eller annet sted i Russland jobber på dette forumet

Men det sier litt om hvor utstrakt dette er, når de vier tid til dette forumet. I internasjonal sammenheng må det kunne sies at lesergruppen er ganske begrenset.

[EverLast]

Tenk at det sitter en russer på en trollfabrikk et eller annet sted i Russland jobber på dette forumet

De sitter nødvendigvis ikke så veldig langt unna der du befinner deg, hvis du tenker nøye etter hvor en russer kan sitte i Norge og spre desinformasjon og propaganda.

[startelver]

Hvis Putin vinner, så er det en katastrofe for Europa, da vil nok andre baltiske land bli de neste som blir angrepet. Putin er hardt presset nå, og kan finne på hva som helst. Det syke er at han har så stor oppslutning i hjemlandet.

Vil nesten påstå at det sykeste er hvor mange som støtter han utenfor Russland. Mange støtter Russland fordi de er misfornøyd med egen regjering.

Jeg kan legge til flere titalls millioner mennesker for deg. Kanskje opp mot hundre millioner eller mer, som støtter Putin og Russland, utenfor Russland.

Nemlig de mest religiøse. Denne gruppen er det voldsomt mange av, som støtter Russland pga. deres standpunkt i mann/kvinne-diskusjonen, og LGBT-bevegelsen. Her jeg bor, i Indonesia, bor det 270 millioner mennesker. Mange av disse har nulltoleranse for vår åpne holdning i Vesten, både muslimer og kristne, og støtter Russland i denne krigen for deres motstand mot vårt "frislipp" på området. De kunne ikke bry seg mindre om hvem som har rett på deler av Ukraina, hvem som startet krigen, eller om Russlands grusomme krigføring.

Og dette er bare Indonesia. Kristne som muslimer (Indonesia har flest muslimer av alle land i verden). Kan bare tenke meg hva man mener i andre, folkerike land, som India, Kina etc.

Sjokkerende, men allikevel et faktum. Jeg har fått kastet i ansiktet at det er Vesten, NATO og USA som er de virkelige terroristene, og ikke Russland. De kjemper bare mot vestlig forfall i moral..

Dette stemnmer veldig bra når vi ser dette i et globalt perspektiv. I India alene bør det jo 1 milliard mennesker.

Men de sitter heldigvis ikke på pengegrisen. Skal man vinne en krig i dag må man være økonomisk veldig sterk. Men religioner , både muslimsk, kristen og andre kan fort være støttespillere for Putin, desverre.

[Frysedisk]

Fyfaen tråden ødelegges av pro-russiske troll.

Utrolig! Fortsett historien din

Interessant med et ekte troll! Drister meg til et par spørsmål: Hvor mye tjener du i timen på å sitte og skrive slikt på nettet? Er arbeidsforholdene gode? Hvor mange ansatte er det der du jobber?

[nometalhorse]

Det er nesten litt søtt når noen hevder at mangel på chips ikke var/er noe problem, og at plyndring av vaskemaskiner ikke har blitt gjort når sannheten er at selv store vestlige firma nettopp gjorde slikt.

Chip-Starved Firms Are Scavenging Silicon From Washing Machines.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... g-machines

[Hetfield]

Det er nesten litt søtt når noen hevder at mangel på chips ikke var/er noe problem, og at plyndring av vaskemaskiner ikke har blitt gjort når sannheten er at selv store vestlige firma nettopp gjorde slikt.

Chip-Starved Firms Are Scavenging Silicon From Washing Machines.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... g-machines

Avslørende at brukeren ble snurt på Russlands vegne og henger tre år etter mtp. fakta om den globale mangelen på chipper..

[PapaSmurf]

Dette er skjell.

https://sjofartsmuseum.museumvest.no/me ... skjell.png

Hvis man ikke forstår norsk, så burde man kanskje ikke være her inne. Blir ingen meningsfull dialog når man bruker Google translate/Yandex. Det blir veldig lett å se at det kun er trollvirksomhet man er her for. Blir som han "finnen" på Twitter i går som mente at NATO ikke kunne "laste ned" Finland.

Jeg synes Vind gjør det bra i norsk og dette var jo en helt uskyldig misforståelse, det gikk kanskje over engelsk shells.

Vind gjør det ikke bra i norsk. Det er det et oversettingsprogram som fikser.

[Vind]

Jeg tror problemet med mikrobrikker er relatert til bitcoin-farmer.

[Vind]

Fyfaen tråden ødelegges av pro-russiske troll.

Utrolig! Fortsett historien din

Interessant med et ekte troll! Drister meg til et par spørsmål: Hvor mye tjener du i timen på å sitte og skrive slikt på nettet? Er arbeidsforholdene gode? Hvor mange ansatte er det der du jobber?

Provokasjon

[Hetfield]

Jeg tror problemet med mikrobrikker er relatert til bitcoin-farmer.

Det er det største problemet.

Mangelen på komponenter som brukes til å lage grafiske prosessorer, siden bitcoin-farmere kjøpte opp alle skjermkort-toppmodellene i stor grad til PC, men det gikk også da utover produksjonen til spillkonsoller også b.la

[Karatel]

Hvis man ikke forstår norsk, så burde man kanskje ikke være her inne. Blir ingen meningsfull dialog når man bruker Google translate/Yandex. Det blir veldig lett å se at det kun er trollvirksomhet man er her for. Blir som han "finnen" på Twitter i går som mente at NATO ikke kunne "laste ned" Finland.

Jeg synes Vind gjør det bra i norsk og dette var jo en helt uskyldig misforståelse, det gikk kanskje over engelsk shells.

Sannsynligheten for at innleggene til brukeren kommer rett fra en trollfabrikk er høy. Mulig du ikke fikk lest alt som ble slettet av mod tidl. i dag?

Nå har dette utviklet seg til en persondebatt. Men jeg skal svare, jeg er helt sikker på at Vind ikke kommer fra en trollfabrikk, han registrerte seg på FD 6. august 2021, et halvt år før Russland angrep Ukraina. Han var også noen år på VGD.

Jeg er også helt sikker på at dette er samme person som jeg i flere år debatterte med på et annet forum, og der var han så avgjort ikke fra en trollfabrikk, men en privatperson.

Så ta det nå litt med ro og vær tolerant mot Vind.